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still see them finish in the post-season, bu

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MessagePosté le: 14/08/18, 07:59 am    Sujet du message: still see them finish in the post-season, bu Répondre en citant

NEW YORK -- The last time the New York Rangers had a game to forget, they responded with five straight wins that put them on the cusp of the Stanley Cup finals. Authentic DaeSean Hamilton Jersey . They are still there, and the Montreal Canadiens arent going away without a fight. New York needs one more victory to reach the championship round for the first time in 20 years. The Rangers know that Game 6 at home on Thursday is their best chance to get it. They returned home from Montreal on Wednesday, one day after a wild 7-4 loss cut their series lead to 3-2. If New York doesnt end it Thursday, the Rangers will have to go back to Montreal for a deciding Game 7. New York, which went the full seven games in each of the first two rounds of this years playoffs, will be playing its 20th post-season game. No team that played a pair of seven-game series before the conference finals has reached the Stanley Cup finals. "Its an opportunity to win the game to go to the Stanley Cup final," Rangers forward Brad Richards said. "I think everybody is alert and ready that way. We were talking about it all (Tuesday) how excited we were to get on the ice and start playing. "We had some mental breakdowns, but I dont think it had anything to do with (fatigue). Weve had a lot of rest this series. The opportunity that faces us right now, were pretty excited about it. I dont think there is too much letdown." In the second round, a poor performance at home in Game 4 against Pittsburgh dropped the Rangers into a 3-1 series hole. But New York won Game 5 on the road, took Game 6 at home, and won the clincher back in Pittsburgh to set up the matchup with Montreal. Now that the Canadiens have staved off elimination once, the Rangers are wary of giving them any more hope they can turn the tables. "You learn a lot from it. Thats why experience is experience," Richards said. "You go through many situations. (Tuesday) night was a bad feeling, but today were getting on a plane to go back to our city, and we get to play in front of our fans. "Its always, forget as quick as possible and try to remember the good things that were doing. It was one bad night, but weve been doing a lot of good things in this series." The Rangers won the opening two games in Montreal and then split a pair of overtime decisions at home. Even though they have had success on the road and in recent Game 7s, they know that going the distance again works against them. "Its a desperate time," Richards said. "You dont want to go back to a Game 7 where anything can happen. We want to get this done. Theyre a good team anywhere. "Were going to have to be a lot better, and we will be." This is as far as New York has advanced since captain Mark Messier led the club to the 1994 Stanley Cup title -- breaking the Rangers 54-year drought. The Garden will be ready to celebrate again Thursday. After the Rangers lost Game 4 to Pittsburgh, the loyal fans thought they might not see their team again until next season. That will be the situation again if the Canadiens pull off another victory. "You win a game, and things change in your locker room and you start feeling better about yourselves," Rangers defenceman Marc Staal said. "We know how it feels coming back in a series, but it doesnt change anything in our room. We are as confident as ever going into our building, and looking forward to it." So are the Canadiens. They know that if they wouldve scored in overtime of Game 4 as they did in Game 3, they wouldve had a two-game sweep at the Garden and would be the ones looking to advance Thursday. "Well be ready for one of those tight-checking games," defenceman Josh Gorges said Wednesday after an optional practice in Montreal. "Im sure it will be again one of those hard-fought games that well have to make sure that were even better than we were last game." Montreal will have rugged forward Brandon Prust back in the lineup after he served a two-game suspension for a late hit on Derek Stepan in Game 3 that broke the Rangers forwards jaw. Stepan returned Tuesday and scored two goals while wearing a full faceguard. The Rangers will be without defenceman John Moore. He was suspended for two games Wednesday after receiving a match penalty Tuesday night for a hit to Montreal forward Dale Weises head. Henrik Lundqvist will be back in goal for the Rangers after he was pulled in Game 5 on a rare off night in which he allowed four goals on 19 shots in less than two periods. He avoided the loss when New York rallied from a 4-1 deficit to get even. Backup goalie Cam Talbot gave up two goals in relief. "(Tuesday) night was probably the best game weve played in this series," Canadiens forward Lars Eller said. "If we keep doing a lot of those things, I think the end result will be good." Broncos Jerseys China . JOHNS, N. Authentic Isaac Yiadom Jersey . - Mathew Barzal scored 3:47 into overtime as the Seattle Thunderbirds downed the visiting Everett Silvertips 4-3 on Tuesday in Western Hockey League playoff action. . - This win was more the New Jersey Devils style.An awful lot of digital ink has been spilled on Patrick Roys 2013-14 Colorado Avalanche this summer, a team that more or less defied woeful play at five-on-five by riding unsustainable shooting and save percentages. Largely because we have seen a model of this team before, many analysts are expecting some form of regression a€“ the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild and 2012-13 Toronto Maple Leafs have provided ample case studies in the importance of getting the right side of possession. Perhaps more accurately, they have provided lessons on why teams must not rely on volatile percentages to rack up wins. What makes this Colorado team interesting is two-fold. Firstly, theyre teeming with young and developing talent, which could help stave off that regression to a degree. Secondly, we have only seen one year of real success from this club. The season before, Colorado played to a 67-point pace and finished dead last in the Western Conference. Since we have data on teams dating back to 2007, its not particularly difficult to investigate relationships between sets of data. Correlations of subsequent seasons can tell us what kind of adjustments to make, if any, when trying to forecast future output. What I went ahead and did prior to this post was pull out Year 1 vs. Year 2 data for a variety of team-level even-strength numbers from 2007 to 2012 and dropped them in the table below. Repeatability is an r-squared number that tells us the percent of variance explained - the higher the r-squared number (up to 1.0), the more repeatable of a skill it is: Repeatability EV Shooting Percentage 0.00 EV Save Percentage 0.13 EV Goal For% 0.19 EV Fenwick% 0.33 EV Corsi% 0.38 EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick% (SAF%) 0.39 You are reading the above correctly. A teams even-strength shooting percentage over one year tells us absolutely nothing about how that team will shoot the following year. Save percentage is slightly more telling than shooting percentage, but ultimately, its a number youre going to want to heavily regress. As you go down the list, the correlations in data run tighter and the numbers dont need to be regressed as heavily. None of this bodes well for Colorado, a team that rode high percentages and carried terrible territorial control. One other note on the above - youll see that the r-squared between EV GoalFor% in the first year and EV GoalFor% in the subsequent year is 0.19. While EV GoalFor% is a better predictor of future EV GoalFor% than both EV Fenwick% and EV Corsi%, it is not a better predictor than EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick%. That said, lets look at some comparables for the Colorado Avalanche - teams that picked up 90 or more points (my random cut-off line separating average teams from good ones) who also carried sub-par possession numbers at even-strength. Well use equations generated for the year-one to year-two correlations to create an estimated number, and then compare it against the teams actual number. First, lets do the percentages at even-strength: Y1 EVSH% Est. Y2 EVSH% Actual Y2 EVSH% 2007 Pittsburgh 8.96% 7.89% 9.76% 2007 Montreal 8.73% 7.88% 8.23% 2007 Minnesota 8.39% 7.88% 7.50% 2008 Florida 8.35% 7.88% 7.71% 2008 Montreal 8.23% 7.88% 7.58% 2009 Colorado 8.84% 7.89% 7.93% 2010 Carolina 8.05% 7.88% 7.26% 2010 Dallas 8.72% 7.89% 7.62% 2010 Anaheim 7.79% 7.87% 7.99% 2013 Colorado 8.77% 7.89% ? AVERAGE 8.48% 7.88% 7.95% Its almost stunning how identical the expected year two and actual year two percentages are on both ends of the rink. The takeaway from this is simple: one year of shooting percentage data tells us absolutely nothing, and reegressing it all the way to the league average will give us a much better forecast of whats to come. Cheap Broncos Jerseys Authentic . Y1 EVSV% Est. Y2 EVSV% Actual Y2EVSV% 2007 Pittsburgh 93.29% 92.55% 92.40% 2007 Montreal 92.53% 92.28% 92.27% 2007 Minnesota 92.25% 92.18% 92.70% 2008 Florida 93.27% 92.54% 93.13% 2008 Montreal 92.27% 92.19% 92.90% 2009 Colorado 92.62% 92.31% 91.35% 2010 Carolina 92.45% 92.25% 92.34% 2010 Dallas 92.49% 92.27% 92.05% 2010 Anaheim 92.32% 92.21% 91.66% 2013 Colorado 93.07% 92.47% ? AVERAGE 92.66% 92.33% 92.31% The same can be said for save percentage data - taking our year one data and pulling it back 87 per cent to the league average gives us a more accurate guess as to whats to come. Using that regression for forecasting purposes, expect Colorado to shoot around 7.89 per cent for next year at evens and stop around 92.47 per cent of the shots. Now, lets break away from shooting and save percentages and look at possession rates. We know Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is the most repeatable of these metrics. Lets repeat the above exercise with the same Colorado comparables, and try to pindown where Colorado will finish at evens this season. Ive included a fourth column in here to identify the change in points from Year 1 to Year 2. Y1 SAF% Est. Y2 SAF% Actual Y2 SAF% Points Change 2007 Pittsburgh 46.70% 48.05% 49.21% -3 2007 Montreal 47.22% 48.36% 47.56% -11 2007 Minnesota 47.77% 48.68% 47.39% -9 2008 Florida 46.18% 47.75% 45.66% -16 2008 Montreal 47.60% 48.58% 46.78% -5 2009 Colorado 46.33% 47.83% 46.38% -27 2010 Carolina 47.18% 48.34% 47.18% -9 2010 Dallas 47.60% 48.58% 47.60% -6 2010 Anaheim 45.46% 47.32% 45.46% -20 2013 Colorado 47.18% 48.34% ? ? AVERAGE 46.92% 48.18% 47.02% -11.78 You should first notice that regression seems less important with our possession numbers than the shooting/save percentages above. Thata€?s because possession is a repeatable skill - or in this case, the lack of possession is a repeatable skill. Every team that can be considered a comparable for Colorado 2013-14 was out-shot in Year 1 and Year 2 - in most cases, decisively. And, ita€?s impossible to ignore that column on the right, where every single percentage-good, possession-bad team of recent history saw a fall in the standings. The average fall for those nine teams was in the double digits, and the one team that didna€?t take a massive hit - 2007 Pittsburgh - improved their possession numbers by almost three full percentage points. Not only are those percentages running against the Avs, but they also go into next season missing their two best possession forwards from last season, with Paul Stastny signing in St. Louis and P.A. Parenteau traded to Montreal. Further, its difficult to project improved possession numbers when the Avalanche brain trust doesnt seem inclined to dig into possession-based analytics. This does not bode well for Patrick Roya€?s team. Ita€?s a virtual lock that their shooting and save percentages will climb down from their heights of last year, which means that their Goal% - last year, it was at 53.6 per cent - is in real trouble. The million dollar question is how far the Avs will fall - knocking them down by the average (-11.78) would likely still see them finish in the post-season, but their margin for error will be extremely tight this year. Cheap Canadiens Jerseys Cheap Predators Jerseys Cheap Devils Jerseys Cheap Islanders Jerseys Cheap Rangers Jerseys Cheap Senators Jerseys Cheap Flyers Jerseys Cheap Penguins Jerseys Cheap Sharks Jerseys Cheap Blues Jerseys Cheap Lightning Jerseys Cheap Maple Leafs Jerseys Cheap Canucks Jerseys Cheap Golden Knights Jerseys Cheap Capitals Jerseys Cheap Winnipeg Jets Jerseys ' ' '

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MessagePosté le: 14/08/18, 07:59 am    Sujet du message: Publicité

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